11 Predictions for the Tourism of the Future

A few days ago, CNN published a report on the predictions made by different experts on issues related to transport and tourism in the near future. Based on the research carried out, they assigned a percentage of probability to each point and ordered them from most likely to least likely. This is a summary of the predictions:

Probability of a 99% that: Magnetic levitation trains will replace air transport

Well, it seems that high-speed trains are already replacing airplanes on certain routes such as London-Paris or Milan-Rome. In our case, Barcelona-Madrid, it is true that more and more people are using them, but there is still a long way to go before they can replace the air bridge. Experts say that if magnetic levitation trains (almost frictionless) are used instead of trains like the current ones, which are much faster than the current ones, then this type of transport will be replaced for short routes. The prediction is for about 10 years from now.

Probability of an 80% that: Passports are obsolete documents

Experts say that paper documents will be replaced by microchips and biometric recognition. To me, this prediction seems more plausible than the previous one and quicker to implement…

Probability of a 70% that: Space is a tourist destination

This is already a reality, although not for everyone. But Space Adventures is already marketing Russian space flights, and Virgin Galactic is preparing its trips to weightless orbit for next year. I would give it almost a 100%.

Probability of a 60% that: Aircraft fly without a pilot

Uh, uh… here, I would downplay the probability. Although a couple of summers ago I was on the underground line that connects the Doglands area with central London and that runs without a driver. For the passengers' peace of mind, there was a human person in charge who walked around the train with a handful of keys in his hand and hinted that he could take control if necessary. But from there to generalizing it to airplanes… I still see it as a bit far off.

Probability of a 50% that: There are hotels in space

Considering that a hotel capsule is scheduled to launch in 2016… it will all depend on how private space flights work out… but I would raise the probability.

Probability of a 40% that: Aircraft have part of the fuselage transparent

This would be nice… to be able to see the immense landscapes from the plane. In this case I do not have enough information and knowledge to evaluate the probability assigned to it.

Probability of a 40% that: cars fly

Ummm… the cost of something like that is very high. I would lower the odds.

Probability of a 30% that: We have a space elevator

They have touched my sensitive side there, because as a good fan of Science Fiction, I have been following the development of this topic for years and it seems that the predictions of 5 years ago are not going to come true (the elevator was planned for 2025 and there is an X-Prize to encourage it and to have it much earlier), but now there is talk of having it by 2050 (I hope to be able to see it even though I am already an old lady). So I would increase the odds, although for the long term.

You will find more information about the elevator and how it is in this article: space elevator (I included images of the models that are being worked on)

Probability of a 20% that: There are flights without children

This is typical of certain cultures. In London there are establishments that do not allow children (not because of the smoking issue, but so that they do not cause any disturbance)… and there are airlines that do not assign seats to children on the upper deck of 747s to ensure silence. So it may be that someone might come up with a flight without children. We would have to see what the anti-discrimination laws think about this.

Probability of 10% that: Airport Duty Free shops will disappear and become just a showroom.

I find this very unlikely, although the idea is that you see the products, buy them online and have them at home when you arrive. The problem I see is that Duty Free is also a pastime at the airport… and the issue of gifts back home has to be taken into account, since they are delivered when you arrive, not by mail while you are travelling. So I would assign it a probability of almost 0%.

If you wish to read the original article, you can do so here: CNN Tourism Predictions

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